by Jay Jaffe
June 4, 2024
2:01 |
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2:02 |
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2:03 |
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2:04 | Gerald H: Opening day 2025….what team do you think Juan Soto is on? |
2:06 |
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2:07 | Tim: Are we staring down another mlb lockout in 2026/2027? Already hearing rumors about it… will the league actually miss games this time? |
2:08 |
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2:11 | Gm Speak: Is the Blue Jays and Astros Gm’s saying there is no chance they are going to sell there good players at the deadline just lip service or are they really going to be that stubborn? Blue Jays especially being 13 games out of first. |
2:15 |
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2:16 | sodo mojo: Do the Mariners need to trade for a bat in the short term or do they wait until the deadline? Since the calendar flipped to May they are league average by WRC does that give them pause to see which of their struggling bats rebounds? |
2:19 |
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2:19 | DT: A full season at this rate (around 9 WAR) has to seal the Cooperstown deal for Judge right? |
2:21 |
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2:23 |
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2:25 | Tjf167: What $ number does a reasonable Volpe extension start at? Feels like a high ceiling but lowish floor player. $110mm with a few FA years? |
2:28 |
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2:30 | Tjf167: Are the days of big first basem*n FA deals over? It doesn’t seem like Alonso will ever get the $150mm he turned down, and with 1 dimensional guys like Torkleson (busting) and Vlad Jr(regressing), it just seems like there should be a lot of skitishness. |
2:32 |
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2:32 | brad penny for your thoughts: how “big of a deal” do you find the Tucupita Marcano ban?how likely do you think more bettors will be found in MLB? |
2:36 |
Frankly, I think there should be a blanket ban on professional athletes gambling on sports, and you have to be pretty ****ing stupid to risk your career on the type of money at stake through either legal or illegal betting. |
2:37 | RAGBRAI: As pitchers are pitching fewer innings (impacting other stats) and hitters are hitting less HRs (impacting other stats), do we see those former benchmark numbers become meaningless to HOF entry. |
2:39 |
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2:40 | Christian: Hi Jay! With the integration of Negro League stats into the MLB record and increased awareness of lesser-known NeL stars, do you see any Negro Leaguers who might find their way into the Hall of Fame soon? |
2:44 |
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2:45 | gila monster: Luis Gil bumpday. He’s been on fire, do you think it’s legit? |
2:47 |
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2:48 | Zach: Loved your Judge piece. One thing I’ve noticed that no one is talking about is that a couple weeks ago he finished off the best 50 game rolling xwOBA in the statcast era, and he currently has the best 100 game rolling xwOBA in the statcast era. Seems absolutley insane to me. |
2:50 |
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2:50 |
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2:50 | wheelhouse: if the 2024 yankees are fake, what will the reason be |
2:51 |
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2:51 | Tacoby Bellsbury: On this day two months from now, where do you suspect Pete Alonso will be playing? |
2:52 |
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2:53 | P: After reading Dan’s article about Eduard Julien’s demotion, it may not be that justifiable purely in terms of performance, but given that the AAA team is at home this week (so Julien doesn’t need to actually move anywhere, just take a different highway from home), do you think there’s anything to be gained by simply saying “go play 6 games in St. Paul and for God’s sake, just swing the dang bat” in an effort to bust his slump or change his approach? |
2:54 |
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2:55 | Sanford: Please do to Pete Alonso what you did to Aaron Judge. Thanks! |
2:56 |
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2:56 | slumppy: At what point does MLB step in to try and do something about the offense? It has been so bad overall this year. Currently it is the only of the big American sports that doesn’t seem to get and cater the rules to increase offense since that is what the general public wants. |
2:58 |
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3:00 | JT: Even if Vladdy isn’t great at 3B, is this finally a recognition from the Blue Jays that we need to sacrifice some defense for offense if we want to, um, win a game? |
3:02 |
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3:03 | Kyle: Does Jasson force his way into the BX? |
3:05 |
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3:05 | Mark S: Would 500 HRs get Stanton to Cooperstown? Or has that benchmark been forever tainted by the Steroid era. |
3:05 |
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3:06 | Zach: Anthony Rizzo has a 58 wRC+ in his last 30 games and a 72 wRC+ since his collision with Tatis last year. Are the Yankees ride-or-die with Rizzo or would they consider a move at 1B? |
3:07 |
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3:07 | HoganLegDrop: Is there any reason to think Severino (if he keeps current pace) gets any more than what Lorezen did last year? |
3:10 |
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3:10 | HoganLegDrop: How should we feel about Yamamoto and that contract given what we’ve seen so far? Do we think that there is another gear he could kick into but is an above-average but not dominate pitcher looking more likely? |
3:11 |
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3:12 |
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3:13 | Nathaniel Lowe: What’s going on with him? I see a a drop in LA and a big drop in ISO and Barrels/Rate. I traded for him when Casas went down and have appeared to acquire a rock. |
3:14 |
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3:15 | Dk: More likely to turn their career around after severe early career struggles Baty or Torkelson? |
3:17 |
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3:17 | T(win)s: No question, just happy Royce Lewis is back!Being a fan of MN sports we’re preconditioned to default to “That’s why we can’t have nice things” |
3:18 |
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3:18 | MikeD: Do you believe MLB has “deadened” the ball this year, or are there other issues at play. If the former, why would they do that? |
3:20 |
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3:20 | Jason N: Hey Jay – looks like the FanGraphs servers are compromised (again).I keep getting my screen taken over by scam ads – even during your chat.May want to alert the site admins. |
3:20 |
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3:22 | Phil: Are Bello, Houck, Casas, Devers, Abreu, and Rafaela the core of a future contending team? Or are we waiting for Mayer, Teel, and company, in which case I presume some of the above will be traded or let go in free agency following a few more years of the current endless middlingship? Asking for a few million friends across five and a half states, thanks. |
3:23 |
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3:27 | Theeeehauahsuehaueheueheushh Yankees win: I was poking through the EVs of some of my favorite players and I noticed Freddie Freeman’s average EV is down a bit and so are most of his hard contact numbers. This isn’t to say that he’s having a bad year obviously, he’s still probably a top 20 or 25 player right now based just on the season, but it got me thinking about declines. Could something like this be the sign of an oncoming decline for someone like Freeman? If so does it portend steep ugly decline or a more graceful one? And, say it does lead to a steep sudden decline, is that enough to keep someone like Freeman out of the Hall of Fame? He’s got a fairly strong but probably not complete resume in that regard, so I’m wondering if he’s in danger of falling out of consideration with a hard drop off |
3:31 |
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3:31 | Ben: What do you make of Snell and Montgomery’s awful starts to the year? Both arrived very late to spring training and didn’t even know where they’d be playing until mid-March at earliest. Obviously there are a lot of factors at play, but hard not to think that this interfered with their prep for the season. |
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3:40 |
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3:40 | Sanford: Is there a reason why FanGraphs does not have HR% (allowed) as an available pitching stat? Perhaps I’m missing it, but I never am able to find it on leaderboards or player pages. K/9 and BB/9 are accompanied by K% and BB% (which are definitively more useful), but I’m surprised we’re still left with only HR/9…something you could pass up the chain? |
3:40 |
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3:41 | grader135: Will tommy pham end up back in Arizona? |
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Aaron Judge Is Slumping No More
This Is How It Has to Work
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
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Michaelmember
2 days ago
I worry about Tommy Pham. His comments after being thrown out at home(by a mile) in the game against the Brewers were disconcerting to say the least. Saying he trains all winter so he can f*** somebody up was kinda weird.Hope he finds some peace.
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