Ranking all 8 last-place NFL teams from last season by likelihood of going worst to first in 2024 (2024)

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

2023 record: 6-11 (AFC South)

How they can go from worst to first: Technically, the Titans probably don’t — and I’m being kind — have the worst roster in the NFL.

DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Jeffery Simmons, and the newly-acquired L’Jarius Sneed all remain Pro Bowl-caliber talents. Even with an offensive line and front seven that are both works in progress, that is a solid nucleus with which Tennessee can build positive consistency.

The big question for the Titans is the progress of second-year quarterback Will Levis. The former Kentucky product failed to muster up traction after being thrust into the starting role last year. New head coach Brian Callahan was almost certainly hired to squeeze as much as possible out of Levis. If Levis is closer to a difference-maker than a game manager that the Titans have to literally protect with their game plan, then there’s room for them to make noise as a potential dark horse.

For the time being, skepticism about Levis’ NFL future is more than fair.

Likelihood: Fat chance

Even if everything works out perfectly for the Titans, the competition in their division just seems too tough on paper. C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans are poised to be one of the league’s best teams, while the Indianapolis Colts, with Anthony Richardson and a still-burgeoning Jacksonville Jaguars squad, will be hot on Houston’s tail. A lot would have to break in Tennessee’s favor in the luck department to win the 2024 AFC South

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

2023 record: 5-12 (AFC West)

How they can go from worst to first: The 2023 Chargers were an unmitigated mess. Where do you even begin?

Their secondary fell apart before the end of September. Their receivers were injured and/or unreliable as downfield threats for Justin Herbert, who seldom even had time to launch dimes behind a tattered offensive line. And when things really snowballed, Los Angeles lost nine of its last 11 games.

Enter Jim Harbaugh, the supposed savior of one of the NFL’s most snakebitten and forgettable franchises. Harbaugh’s fingerprints were felt with an investment in top-five pick Joe Alt, someone who might form an All-Pro tackle duo with Rashawn Slater. As far as receivers go, Ladd McConkey is precisely the kind of savvy chain-mover who can thrive with Herbert’s elite processing ability. As for that secondary? Well, it shouldn’t be an outright disaster with names like Derwin James and Asante Samuel Jr., provided everyone stays healthy. Progress!

The Chargers’ Harbaugh era has a solid foundation in place. L.A. making a run of it in 2024 wouldn’t be shocking.

Likelihood: LOL

OK, yes, Herbert is one of pro football’s top offensive signal callers. And yes, Harbaugh has a track record of turning various football programs and teams into winners, sometimes even overnight. But I’m not entirely sure the Chargers are trying to win in 2024, as much as set the table for a run after this season. This organization only just left salary cap hell after trading Keenan Allen, releasing Mike Williams, and mercifully finding contract resolutions with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa.

They almost left this situation with no one returning!

Teams with that much potential chaos brewing in the background don’t usually morph into a juggernaut right away. Plus, while Alt and McConkey are great picks to add to the Chargers’ offense, it might take a little time for both to feel comfortable and fully integrated in their new pro digs. If that weren’t enough, L.A. shares a division with the reigning two-time Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

I will only pick against prime Patrick Mahomes (on a stacked squad!) winning his division when hell freezes over. It’s just the truth.

Emilee Chinn/Getty Images

2023 record: 4-13 (NFC West)

How they can go from worst to first: This might be a hot take, but a good quarterback being healthy and in rhythm is easily the most crucial aspect of any NFL roster. A spicy thought, I know.

I say this because 2024 will be the first full calendar year — complete with a full offseason training regime — the Cardinals will have had Kyler Murray since 2021. Folks, Murray is a two-time Pro Bowler who creates magic with the best of them. Having him in full capacity from the jump is a big deal. We should be talking about it so much more!

Murray’s green light coincides with the arrival of phenom receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. The rookie is arguably the best receiver prospect in a generation and should make sweet music with Murray from the jump. Between Murray, Harrison, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, Zay Jones, and the stalwart James Conner, there’s a lot to like about this potential high-flying Arizona offense. It’s funny how things eventually come together.

Likelihood: In a word … no

As much as I like what the Cardinals’ offense has on paper with a healthy Murray, the defense is an abject disaster. Outside of perennial All-Pro safety Budda Baker, I don’t think there’s one long-term building block Arizona can be proud of yet. This is a unit constructed around stopgaps and versatile tweeners who still need time and patience to grow.

That’s fine, and having a long-term vision is proactive and sound … it’s just not good enough to be that competitive this season.

In a division that features the San Francisco 49ers’ smashmouth attack, the uber-vertical Los Angeles Rams, and the efficient Seattle Seahawks, Arizona faces tough sledding to reach the top of the mountain.

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

2023 record: 4-13 (NFC East)

How they can go from worst to first: If you ignore their recent history of imploding and coming apart at the seams, then it’s hard not to see the Commanders on the ascent. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne remain the finest interior defensive line duo in the game, supported by the rising Emmanuel Forbes and the redemptive Jeremy Chinn on the back end. Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Jahan Dotson, and Luke McCaffrey comprise an underrated skill group.

There’s a lot to like here, even if the puzzles don’t necessarily fit perfectly together in the nation’s capital.

Washington’s 2024 success will ultimately be predicated on how pro-ready Jayden Daniels is. I’m personally not a fan of the rookie quarterback — I think Washington fell for the draft media hype and massively reached on him — but he does have the requisite ability to play at this level. Provided the Commanders don’t ask Daniels to extend himself too much, there’s a feasible reality where he can keep things steady enough to make a run in the NFC East.

Likelihood: Come back in 2025

Even if the Commanders feel like they’re on the upswing, it’s way too early to count on them putting a scare into the NFC East superpowers. The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have Super Bowl-caliber rosters eager to capitalize on a stupendous redemption this fall. The New York Giants are obviously considerably weaker, but that didn’t stop Big Blue from sweeping Washington last fall.

Supplanting the Cowboys and Eagles will require the Commanders to possess significantly stronger trenches — on both sides of the ball. The organization just isn’t there yet at this early stage of its rebuild.

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

2023 record: 4-13 (AFC East)

How they can go from worst to first: The Patriots’ record says they were horrible last year — which they were — but that’s mostly what happens when you have two rusty anchors (Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe) affixed to the bow of your ship. While it will take some time for him to reach his ceiling, the Patriots are rightfully confident that No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye will be different.

That’s because Maye has the chops of a prototypical passer. He’s an elite creator. He’s got a dynamite arm. He goes through full progressions and doesn’t waste plays or ignore areas of the field. He is the kind of player you build around, who has the talent to become one of the biggest names in the sport. The fact that Maye fell to New England with the third pick is confounding until you remember they are the Patriots, and they were probably due such a massive break, according to their recent history.

If Maye turns out to be a little precocious, then all of a sudden, a great Patriots defense on paper can start flexing its muscles more. Matthew Judon, Christian Barmore, and Christian Gonzalez have to be salivating at the opportunity to pin opposing offenses on their own end because the New England offense can actually pull its own weight for once. Pro football is a complementary game, first and foremost, and the Patriots are in an optimal position to take advantage.

Likelihood: Well, actually, maybe!

Look, I know it’s a little foolish to trust a rookie quarterback on a rebuilding team. But it’s not as if the current AFC East is the picture of excellence. Mike McDaniel’s top-heavy Miami Dolphins have established that they will start seasons white hot before inevitably losing steam in stretch runs. The New York Jets have Aaron Rodgers, who is 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. While I trust Josh Allen more than most quarterbacks, it’s hard to argue the Bills got better this offseason after losing names like Stefon Diggs.

It’s not particularly likely, but don’t discount the possibility of New England riding to first place on the back of a play-action-based offense and a stout defense. Crazier things have happened!

Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

2023 record: 2-15 (NFC South)

How they can go from worst to first: OK, first of all, please stop laughing. I’m aware that this suggestion is patently absurd all around. The Panthers … competent … after the all-time abysmal year they just had? It’s funny just to read that out loud, so I get it.

Still, slowly but surely, I’ve actually kind of talked myself into this.

For one, there’s no way Bryce Young can be nearly as bad as he was during his rookie year. A revamped supporting cast featuring Diontae Johnson and Xavier Leggette gives the ex-No. 1 pick much more to work with on offense. As does new head coach Dave Canales, a.k.a. the guy who made 2023 Baker Mayfield resemble a franchise-adjacent quarterback.

Defensively, replacing Brian Burns will hurt, but the Panthers have more players than you think. Namely, cornerback Jaycee Horn, defensive end A’Shawn Robinson, and seasoned edge Jadeveon Clowney. Even with the addition of Kirk Cousins to the NFC South, this division is probably still the worst in pro football. I’ve seen enough of Mayfield and the up-and-down Derek Carr to understand that it’s probably safer to fade the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints rather than ever put any faith in them.

So, the path is there, Panthers!

Likelihood: The NFL is a weird cornucopia of possibility

Rosy outlook aside, the Panthers’ defense is a mess. Unless Young makes a sizable leap in 2024, this team is probably stuck without a paddle. Most of this prognostication is rooted in the Panthers residing in a division of some of the NFL’s worst-run organizations with respective afterthoughts at quarterback. I don’t think things will break Carolina’s way, but the South is strange, so you never know.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

2023 record: 7-10 (NFC North)

How they can go from worst to first: It’s easy to forget now, but the Bears didn’t have the No. 1 pick because they had the league’s worst record. They were at the top because of a fortuitous trade from last spring with the aforementioned Panthers. What a trade that was — a deal that effectively gave Chicago a potential generational quarterback in Caleb Williams, promising receiver prospect Rome Odunze, No. 1 playmaker D.J. Moore, and Darnell Wright, a stout and athletic tackle who looks like he might have an All-Pro ceiling.

These Bears had the No. 3 defense for most of the second half of last season. This was despite having an offense that could seldom gain any semblance of a consistent rhythm or traction. Imagine what 2023 Pro Bowlers Jaylon Johnson and Montez Sweat could do when they have a quarterback and offense who will let them rest while giving them more breathing room.

At a minimum, in a weak NFC, Chicago is ripe for a playoff push.

Likelihood: Don’t rule it out

I’m of the opinion that the Detroit Lions are the best team in the NFC. I will be picking accordingly to qualify for Super Bowl 49 when the time is more appropriate. Dan Campbell’s group has no real weakness and now has the sting of immense playoff failure to use as motivation. With that said, most of this current Bears roster — pre-Williams — kicked Detroit’s butt last year. If not for a miserable closing sequence on the road, the Bears would’ve swept the Lions going away. It’ll be harder to do that with an improved Lions secondary, but Chicago has already shown it hang with the boys in Honolulu Blue.

As for the rest of the division, the Green Bay Packers might have struck gold again with Jordan Love. And that defense is no joke when everyone is healthy. But they’re fittingly more or less in the same position as Chicago — waiting for their young talisman to grow up as they develop him. When it comes to the Vikings, Minnesota might have a good plan for J.J. McCarthy, but expect a ton of growing pains when he isn’t lobbing passes to Justin Jefferson.

The Bears could be back. Perhaps.

Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

2023 record: 9-8 (AFC North)

How they can go from worst to first: Joe Burrow is a top-five quarterback. The Bengals’ season was essentially over the moment he had to miss the latter half of 2023 after a wrist injury. Because the rest of the Cincinnati roster is rife with field-tilters and game-changers, the Bengals still went on to finish with nine wins and a winning record. As such, while it’s a huge leap to make, Cincinnati was likely in a position for a third consecutive appearance in the AFC title game before Burrow’s injury.

That should tell you everything about where the Bengals stand in 2023.

Cincinnati already has some “last dance” vibes as it works out contract situations with receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Trey Hendrickson. But this team is loaded, with two bona fide matchup problems on offense and an understated defense led by coordinating wizard Lou Anarumo. As long as Burrow stays healthy this time around, I like their chances against anyone in the league, especially that red-and-gold bunch in Kansas City.

Likelihood: If Burrow wills it, it shall happen

The Baltimore Ravens are running back a team that won 13 games and was on the doorstep of the Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steelers finally have competency at quarterback, meaning Mike Tomlin might not have to coach his tail just to finish near .500. The Cleveland Browns still have arguably the most tenacious and gifted defense in the league.

Put another way: The AFC North is an absolute gauntlet of heavyweights.

And I still like the Bengals’ chances over all of their main rivals. Why? Because with Burrow, who I think is the best quarterback in the division, Cincinnati can fire on all cylinders in a way no one else is capable of in the AFC North. This was a Super Bowl-caliber team sidetracked by the unfortunate dangers of football.

With their franchise passer, the formidable Bengals are back now. Everyone who resides in their division better be worried.